Tarrifs...How will they affect Stark Varg EX pricing?

[RJS]

Clearly not a consequence of Trump's tariffs

 

[DaveAusNor]

Well seems like it was all just some bullshit scam for don and his mates to buy the dip.

 

[Erwin P]

Why should we buy less abroad? In the US we let the market guide our consumption we don't want to stop that it is why our economy thrives. We are not Europeans and the rates of taxes, protectionism, and government intervention you accept is not acceptable here. Never has been. And that is what make us different from you.

And despite our schizoid government, generally Americans want the market to guide consumption we let the market decide that not the government. Europeans are happy with what we see as excess government and that is fine we won't prescribe for you and you don't have to prescribe for us.

Plus, our economy has been thriving generally we have very low unemployment and much stronger growth than most other peer countries and post Pandemic we had a very fast solid economic recovery. The whole argument that we have giant over consumption and that we need big daddy government to tell us how to behave is simply unAmerican. And to have Trump or Biden aged old farts pillage us with more taxes based on nostalgia so we consume like we did in 1975 is frankly a grandpa pipe dream.

Our problem is mostly in the gap that has been growing between the top and the rest of the economic pyramid. Our pyramid is huge our GDP is double China's and bigger than the top 5 combined, we are rich beyond belief in resources like water, land, oil, gas, minerals, agriculture, production capacity and we have the opportunities for growth for the next 100+ years easy. On top of that we are still a magnet for immigrants. While Europeans and Asians suffer with declining populations (like Japan, Korea, and Italy for example) we have a huge pool of immigrants with similar cultures and customs dying to come here right on our border. We have to turn them away.

With all that said and what we have our middle class is not expanding and we have numbers of left behind folks that we haven't seen since the transition from agriculture to industrialism in the late 19th and early 20th Century. And that is a problem we have to work on. Our system is not good at distribution of wealth (and never has been) and that has caused problems in other areas in the past. Also we are lousy at history and tend to repeat our mistakes and then we fall prey to snake oil salesman, nostalgia, populists, and get rich quick schemes until economic crashes, depressions, or scandals put things back on track after years of recovery.

Last I generally agree with your view on tariffs as policy but for different reasons.

From the number i saw the US had a trade deficit over the rest of the world (goods and services combined). To be sustainable you need to roughly even it out. But well, those were numbers i saw and took for true. Not ''holy'' convinced those are true and if it's otherwise i may stand corrected.

I think the EU gouvernment is too regulating, the best is always some middleground. However those regulations may come at the cost of preventing peaks in wealth, but we weren't nearly hit as hard as the US in the financial crisis. Overall you could say the economy over time is more flat and predictable in Europe. That can be both seen as a pro and con.
However that regulations have the nasty side effect of making starting a company harder. Entropeneurship isn't all that rewarded by this system wich to me is a huge drawback.

That you recovered quick after covid is an effect you had from what's stated above, the fall was also deeper. Again not perse a flaw, but a choice for better or worse.
I'm not much of an enviromentalist, but doing something about just wasting resourses is good in my book. EU laws on right to repair, stuff being more lasting and more universal/interchangable is a good thing in my book.
And how the choice fell between 2 men that were way beyond retirement age will always remain a mistery to me i guess. Even if those were 2 exceptional clever humans at time of election, the change of them getting some kind mental illness over the next 4 years would be too much of a risk to me.

Your gap between poor and rich is much smaller here. Might be that we're less rewarding to entropeneurs, but at least the country where i live there isn't real poverty and even the poorest have decent healthcare. And i think that is a big plus. A lott of people don't want to be the ''biggest and best'' they just want to live their lives and that's OK by me.
Also during the start of covid i spoke some Americans and they were deeply in fear of their jobs and how they would be meeting ends. I didn't have to bother about that. Sure my job was safe anyways, but even if your job ceases to exist (firing someone is quite hard here, but when the job no longer exists it's easy enough) ''Big Brother'' steps in with a solid social support.

I don't think tarifs are bad perse, but they are to be used as a precision tool to a very specific end.

I'm in no way saying the US is a bad country or the EU is some perfect collaboration of countries, just pointing out some pro's and con's of the EU vs US way of doing things.

Lastly i want to make a little comparison.
We all know the US is the biggest and strongest guy in the pub. The big strong guy knows that as well. So he has no fear of stepping up to anyone and calling them out. However calling out the second and some of his friends might end up in a bar fight with decent outcome for the big guy. Ringing the bell, grabbing the mic and calling the entire pub out will end in a very predictable way if the entire pub gets mad enough...
I'm afraid that's what the US is doing now. And it would be a shame if the next big guy to come out of this isn't so friendly with the part of the world i live in.

Edit:
In conventional war terms the US has the huge nuclear arsenal. So if all turns south really bad, they can just decide to blow up the pub so to speak. In economic terms they don't really have an equivalent to that, so way less fear from the rest of the world and the pushback will be harder.

 

[DaveAusNor]

 

[RJS]

From the number i saw the US had a trade deficit over the rest of the world (goods and services combined). To be sustainable you need to roughly even it out. But well, those were numbers i saw and took for true. Not ''holy'' convinced those are true and if it's otherwise i may stand corrected.

I think the EU gouvernment is too regulating, the best is always some middleground. However those regulations may come at the cost of preventing peaks in wealth, but we weren't nearly hit as hard as the US in the financial crisis. Overall you could say the economy over time is more flat and predictable in Europe. That can be both seen as a pro and con.
However that regulations have the nasty side effect of making starting a company harder. Entropeneurship isn't all that rewarded by this system wich to me is a huge drawback.

That you recovered quick after covid is an effect you had from what's stated above, the fall was also deeper. Again not perse a flaw, but a choice for better or worse.
I'm not much of an enviromentalist, but doing something about just wasting resourses is good in my book. EU laws on right to repair, stuff being more lasting and more universal/interchangable is a good thing in my book.
And how the choice fell between 2 men that were way beyond retirement age will always remain a mistery to me i guess. Even if those were 2 exceptional clever humans at time of election, the change of them getting some kind mental illness over the next 4 years would be too much of a risk to me.

Your gap between poor and rich is much smaller here. Might be that we're less rewarding to entropeneurs, but at least the country where i live there isn't real poverty and even the poorest have decent healthcare. And i think that is a big plus. A lott of people don't want to be the ''biggest and best'' they just want to live their lives and that's OK by me.
Also during the start of covid i spoke some Americans and they were deeply in fear of their jobs and how they would be meeting ends. I didn't have to bother about that. Sure my job was safe anyways, but even if your job ceases to exist (firing someone is quite hard here, but when the job no longer exists it's easy enough) ''Big Brother'' steps in with a solid social support.

I don't think tarifs are bad perse, but they are to be used as a precision tool to a very specific end.

I'm in no way saying the US is a bad country or the EU is some perfect collaboration of countries, just pointing out some pro's and con's of the EU vs US way of doing things.

Lastly i want to make a little comparison.
We all know the US is the biggest and strongest guy in the pub. The big strong guy knows that as well. So he has no fear of stepping up to anyone and calling them out. However calling out the second and some of his friends might end up in a bar fight with decent outcome for the big guy. Ringing the bell, grabbing the mic and calling the entire pub out will end in a very predictable way if the entire pub gets mad enough...
I'm afraid that's what the US is doing now. And it would be a shame if the next big guy to come out of this isn't so friendly with the part of the world i live in.

Edit:
In conventional war terms the US has the huge nuclear arsenal. So if all turns south really bad, they can just decide to blow up the pub so to speak. In economic terms they don't really have an equivalent to that, so way less fear from the rest of the world and the pushback will be harder.

People have a very strange understanding of Trump and his policies. Trump is not a diplomat, he is a businessman. He negotiates as a businessman. People see his tariffs as threats or diplomatic mistakes, but he will reverse them instaniously if he gets what he wants, "The deal" that is how hard nosed business is done. Nothing personal. People see that as flip flopping, or whatever because they don't understand. Not saying he is right or wrong, don't know if it will work or not, but as you can see from the chart I posted before, trade between the US and the rest of the world has deteriorated most under Biden, and his "diplomacy".

 

[DaveAusNor]

View attachment 13564

Hey RJS,
I just tried to do some fact checking.
The reason China is the largest trading partner to the majority of the world and this graphic has swung so much is because China joined the world trading organisation in 2001. The US then started importing a lot from China in the following 10 years.
In 2018-2020 we had the US China trade wars under the trump government. Then under Biden, the U.S. pivoted to "friendshoring" and reshoring efforts, rebuilding some domestic manufacturing capacity and strengthening trade with allies.

I'd encourage everyone to look at facts and don't just hype your favourite team and talk shit about your rival team. I think team based politics is bad. People should always vote for policy that's relevant for them.
/end political opinion piece.

 

[Erwin P]

All well and good. But if the other side misunderstands you you might be in for a response you didn't expect.

It's like i swapped this conversation to Dutch or German and you would 1 on 1 translate it. All intentions get kind of blurry when you don't speak "the same language".

He is not downplaying some small businesses here. He is playing global superpowers that don't take kindly being talked down on.

When your chart is true there is a 1200B trade deficit. So a huge reliance on foreign goods.
Producing that at home is a multi decade challenge (but might be a good idea). And when the other side follows your predictions everything is well and good. But if lets say China puts export taxes on goods shipped to you together with some other big producers that are pissed off (like Vietnam, Thailand etc) you are actually stranded without goods.
Sure that throws them into a recession, but the American population loosing acces to affordable stuff just might be very pissed off and the outcome off that won't be good on anyone on team tarif. Being a democracy has its weaknesses a China etc don't have to bother with.

 

[RJS]

Hey RJS,
I just tried to do some fact checking.
The reason China is the largest trading partner to the majority of the world and this graphic has swung so much is because China joined the world trading organisation in 2001. The US then started importing a lot from China in the following 10 years.
In 2018-2020 we had the US China trade wars under the trump government. Then under Biden, the U.S. pivoted to "friendshoring" and reshoring efforts, rebuilding some domestic manufacturing capacity and strengthening trade with allies.

I'd encourage everyone to look at facts and don't just hype your favourite team and talk shit about your rival team. I think team based politics is bad. People should always vote for policy that's relevant for them.
/end political opinion piece.

Do you have data to show? The data I showed indicated whatever you claim Biden's efforts were, they worsened the situation. This is me looking at facts and actually providing them, not "talking shit".

 

[Erwin P]

Do you have data to show? The data I showed indicated whatever you claim Biden's efforts were, they worsened the situation. This is me looking at facts and actually providing them, not "talking shit".

Don't see Biden in there, i see 6 President periods of wich 1 is Trumps.
Kind of hard to pin who did what in this from this data.
You might be right, but data doesn't perse support that claim.

 

[RJS]

When your chart is true there is a 1200B trade deficit. So a huge reliance on foreign goods.
Producing that at home is a multi decade challenge (but might be a good idea).

I think it essential to have a manufacturing base, but I doubt Americans will endure the pain necessary to achieve it. As for the rest...I frame neither hypothesis, nor prediction.

 

[RJS]

Don't see Biden in there, i see 6 President periods of wich 1 is Trumps.
Kind of hard to pin who did what in this from this data.
You might be right, but data doesn't perse support that claim.

The data I posted was over the years 2020 to 2024...

 

[Erwin P]

The data I posted was over the years 2020 to 2024...

I looked at a chart showing 2000-2024?

 

[Erwin P]

I think it essential to have a manufacturing base, but I doubt Americans will endure the pain necessary to achieve it. As for the rest...I frame neither hypothesis, nor prediction.

I agree from a US standpoint you should do something about that trade deficit. And having a solid production base is a good start.

The best way to get that is to get companies investing on your soil. The "best" way to do that imo is to offer them a stable political and economic environment. Nothing wrong with custom tarifs on other countries or goods. Might even sprinkle some of that income in subsidies for businesses investing in your country.

Also something about work/quality ethics. Way before Trump i found out i rather have goods from China or Thailand from a quality point of view. With me is a growing number of consumers. That's something the US needs to work on as well. "American made" used to mean something... Now it still means something, but it's not what you like to hear.

 

[DaveAusNor]

Do you have data to show? The data I showed indicated whatever you claim Biden's efforts were, they worsened the situation. This is me looking at facts and actually providing them, not "talking shit".

sure.
China joins WTO

WTO | China - Member information

MEMBER INFORMATION: China and the WTO - This page gathers key information on China's participation in the WTO. China has been a member of WTO since 11 December 2001.

www.wto.org

Trumps trade war with China. 2018

More pain than gain: How the US-China trade war hurt America

The ultimate results of the phase one trade deal between China and the United States — and the trade war that preceded it — have significantly hurt the American economy without solving the underlying economic concerns that the trade war was meant to resolve, write Ryan Hass and Abraham Denmark.

www.brookings.edu

Biden and "friendshoring"

Friend-shoring: what Biden wants to achieve by trading with allies rather than rivals

Canada and Mexico have replaced China as the US’s largest trading partners, due to friend-shoring policies.

theconversation.com

Yea, I just saw you though you posted the difference from 2020 to 2024 and that's why you thought it was all Biden.

 

[DaveAusNor]

Trump is not a diplomat, he is a businessman.

you're right about this. But Trump priorities are his own businesses and not necessarily the average American. A good business man will not make good decisions for others over themselves.

 

[RJS]

sure.
China joins WTO

WTO | China - Member information

MEMBER INFORMATION: China and the WTO - This page gathers key information on China's participation in the WTO. China has been a member of WTO since 11 December 2001.

www.wto.org

Trumps trade war with China. 2018

More pain than gain: How the US-China trade war hurt America

The ultimate results of the phase one trade deal between China and the United States — and the trade war that preceded it — have significantly hurt the American economy without solving the underlying economic concerns that the trade war was meant to resolve, write Ryan Hass and Abraham Denmark.

www.brookings.edu

Biden and "friendshoring"

Friend-shoring: what Biden wants to achieve by trading with allies rather than rivals

Canada and Mexico have replaced China as the US’s largest trading partners, due to friend-shoring policies.

theconversation.com

Yea, I just saw you though you posted the difference from 2020 to 2024 and that's why you thought it was all Biden.

You misunderstand me, the global trade picture from the first Trump ads, vs Biden is pretty damming, I still see no data from you. Here is what 2016 to the beginning of the trade war looked like. Now go and find the respective numbers for the Biden years. I am beginning to fatigue...