Electric motocross survey: questions for Stark Varg riders

[Chaconne]

Lets also not forget that with new tech comes start up problems.

Yes that is true. I am assuming (perhaps incorrectly) that most Stark buyers are early adopters and enjoy innovations and are willing to accept the risk that comes with it.

 

[Erwin P]

Yes that is true. I am assuming (perhaps incorrectly) that most Stark buyers are early adopters and enjoy innovations and are willing to accept the risk that comes with it.

I'm not sure about that. They very early adapters were, but with nearly 1000 bikes per month we're past that stage.

And about big players sweeping in... What big players?
- The Japanese haven't been innovating in MX/Endure since before most promising riders of today were born. The Honda E is just a CRF with a battery and motor instead of an engine and the Yamaha is basically a better funded home project. Suzuki isn't even on the level of startermotors so they pretty much forgot MX exists all together...
- KTM just dodged bankruptcy and spend an ungodly amount of effort to stop E from racing. Not the move when you have a E bike in development...
- Beta/Sherco/TM/Rieju don't have that kind of funds to build an E next to their line-up of carb (or just moved away from carb) bikes.
- The Chinese might be the only options, but so far we've not yet seen a serious MX machine from them. And somehow when they do produce something very capable they do end up at a price point so close to Euro bikes it's almost a non starter.

 

[Beagle]

I'm not sure about that. They very early adapters were, but with nearly 1000 bikes per month we're past that stage.

And about big players sweeping in... What big players?
- The Japanese haven't been innovating in MX/Endure since before most promising riders of today were born. The Honda E is just a CRF with a battery and motor instead of an engine and the Yamaha is basically a better funded home project. Suzuki isn't even on the level of startermotors so they pretty much forgot MX exists all together...
- KTM just dodged bankruptcy and spend an ungodly amount of effort to stop E from racing. Not the move when you have a E bike in development...
- Beta/Sherco/TM/Rieju don't have that kind of funds to build an E next to their line-up of carb (or just moved away from carb) bikes.
- The Chinese might be the only options, but so far we've not yet seen a serious MX machine from them. And somehow when .they do produce something very capable they do end up at a price point so close to Euro bikes it's almost a non starter.

About big players catching up I like to point out what happened in the car industry (which is by far more important for Honda than motorcycles), Honda and so-called "legacy OEM" are still playing catch up to Tesla (and now BYD) in sales and technology after 10 years so Stark could definitely have some time to breathe.

Honda CR-E has been officially presented 8 loooonnnng years ago (as Mugen E rex) and we are yet to see a single spec.
Yamaha has become more serious recently, investing in Electric Motion in late 2024.
Kawasaki has an interesting program with hybrid street bikes and such, technologically far from Stark.
As we all know KTM had introduced its revamped Freeride for 2025 but all mention if it disappeared... and it couldn't hold a candle to the Varg. Taddy B now has an official role at KTM to help with electric motorcycles development, it remains to be seen what happens after Bajaj take over (I could see development of small electric commuters more than high end bikes).

 

[Chaconne]

I'm not sure about that. They very early adapters were, but with nearly 1000 bikes per month we're past that stage.

And about big players sweeping in... What big players?
- The Japanese haven't been innovating in MX/Endure since before most promising riders of today were born. The Honda E is just a CRF with a battery and motor instead of an engine and the Yamaha is basically a better funded home project. Suzuki isn't even on the level of startermotors so they pretty much forgot MX exists all together...
- KTM just dodged bankruptcy and spend an ungodly amount of effort to stop E from racing. Not the move when you have a E bike in development...
- Beta/Sherco/TM/Rieju don't have that kind of funds to build an E next to their line-up of carb (or just moved away from carb) bikes.
- The Chinese might be the only options, but so far we've not yet seen a serious MX machine from them. And somehow when they do produce something very capable they do end up at a price point so close to Euro bikes it's almost a non starter.

I didn't mean bigger players with regard to motorcycle manufacturers. I meant bigger players in terms of battery manufacturers, that is where opportunity is for start ups right now --and they will be crushed when SS is delivered to autos by one or two of the big guys. And Stark could benefit from better battery tech right now. I think Stark could grow their market with lower weight and greater range (that cutting edge SS may provide) which hampers competition with ICE bikes is where I was going.

BTW on a side note 1000 bikes a month might seem like a lot but it a drop in the bucket even compared to small players like KTM. In KTM's stable years they were producing well over 150,000 bikes per year which is over 10K per month and they are small compared to real big guys. The Japanese don't innovate in MX/Enduro because they are pretty much like a US state and the American interest in dirtbikes (and motorcycles in general) has been shrinking since the late 80s and so has the Japanese effort (I don't mean that in a condescending way it is just true).

 

[Beagle]

I didn't mean bigger players with regard to motorcycle manufacturers. I meant bigger players in terms of battery manufacturers, that is where opportunity is for start ups right now --and they will be crushed when SS is delivered to autos by one or two of the big guys. And Stark could benefit from better battery tech right now. I think Stark could grow their market with lower weight and greater range (that cutting edge SS may provide) which hampers competition with ICE bikes is where I was going.

BTW on a side note 1000 bikes a month might seem like a lot but it a drop in the bucket even compared to small players like KTM. In KTM's stable years they were producing well over 150,000 bikes per year which is over 10K per month and they are small compared to real big guys. The Japanese don't innovate in MX/Enduro because they are pretty much like a US state and the American interest in dirtbikes (and motorcycles in general) has been shrinking since the late 80s and so has the Japanese effort (I don't mean that in a condescending way it is just true).

KTM has been the largest European motorcycle manufacturer for years.

1000 bikes per month is both nothing... and a lot!

It's nothing compared to total sales of OEMs with a range of 50-80 different models.

It's record beating if compared to other manufacturers of electric motorcycles.

It's actually quite significant regarding dirt bike sales, pretty much on par with 450 sales by Honda and co.

 

[Chaconne]

KTM has been the largest European motorcycle manufacturer for years.

1000 bikes per month is both nothing... and a lot!

It's nothing compared to total sales of OEMs with a range of 50-80 different models.

It's record beating if compared to other manufacturers of electric motorcycles.

It's actually quite significant regarding dirt bike sales, pretty much on par with 450 sales by Honda and co.

Agreed. And what has happened to KTM is not an accident either. The deformed market for motorcycles in the US as a result of the pandemic was never sustainable. The overall market was really only able to sustain about 180k/yr bikes produced by KTM. In 2008 Harley Davidson produced 360,000 bikes. Last year it was under 150k. And the market is not expanding. I didn't mean to disparage 1000 bikes just to point out that though good, if it is a peak it might not be sustainable. And to keep in mind what I think the American market looks like.

With something like the 450 Honda is almost completely dependent on the US market and the other Asian vendors see what happened, even inexpensive Chinese bikes don't sell all that well in the US (like CFMoto). Pretty much for sales the 450 is an MX bike in the US as there is almost nonexistent market for enduro or trail bikes in the US today. ATVs and UTVs dominate the market for recreational OHVs in the US.

It is significant that Stark is selling bikes but they will have to grow elsewhere IMHO. Americans are not even all that enthusiastic about E-cars and we are not even allowed to purchase inexpensive vehicles like BYD due to government controls. Right now I don't see a lot of dirtbikes or Stark selling a lot of bikes in India or China. Perhaps the European or South American markets will be enough to sustain Stark's growth but I don't think the US market will be there like it was for the Japanese manufacturers of a previous era.

 

[Beagle]

Agreed. And what has happened to KTM is not an accident either. The deformed market for motorcycles in the US as a result of the pandemic was never sustainable. The overall market was really only able to sustain about 180k/yr bikes produced by KTM. In 2008 Harley Davidson produced 360,000 bikes. Last year it was under 150k. And the market is not expanding. I didn't mean to disparage 1000 bikes just to point out that though good, if it is a peak it might not be sustainable. And to keep in mind what I think the American market looks like.

With something like the 450 Honda is almost completely dependent on the US market and the other Asian vendors see what happened, even inexpensive Chinese bikes don't sell all that well in the US (like CFMoto). Pretty much for sales the 450 is an MX bike in the US as there is almost nonexistent market for enduro or trail bikes in the US today. ATVs and UTVs dominate the market for recreational OHVs in the US.

It is significant that Stark is selling bikes but they will have to grow elsewhere IMHO. Americans are not even all that enthusiastic about E-cars and we are not even allowed to purchase inexpensive vehicles like BYD due to government controls. Right now I don't see a lot of dirtbikes or Stark selling a lot of bikes in India or China. Perhaps the European or South American markets will be enough to sustain Stark's growth but I don't think the US market will be there like it was for the Japanese manufacturers of a previous era.

Much to my surprise they've said in their latest video that the US were not their major market (although it's the main dirtbike market).
I can see at least 2 factors in this, EV acceptance is higher in Europe and stealth rides are even more appreciated (population density, regulations and so on).