Varg production numbers / VIN


mike61

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Do you think all VINs are in one row?
Or do they count special numbers for each country or continent?
 

Beagle

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Do you think all VINs are in one row?
Or do they count special numbers for each country or continent?
Great question, I do not have any certainty about this. Indeed VINs do not HAVE TO be sequential numbers although they most often are.

Tracking US VINs (at least the part appearing on motohunt which is likely a subset, some bikes may not show, and I'm wondering about orders already accounted for before import?) all I can say is that I do not see any obvious pattern suggesting anything unusual. I mean other than Bryan "21" first customer Varg suggesting 20 prototypes were made before that.

Last week there were 116 Vargs with VINs showing up in US inventory on Motohunt,
15 in the "0s" i.e. under 1000 (exclusively 200-300s) have been there for a while, often described as demo bikes in the ads,
0 in the 1000s
21 in the 2000s,
30 in the 3000s,
46 in the 4000s and
4 in the 5000s.

Makes sense to see more of recent VINs in inventory, that's 15 dealer demos (that they're trying to fork at the same price, even if some were really brand new, good luck with that) plus 21 "late 2023" bikes and 80 bikes with 2024 model year. Switch to 2024 model year between 2800 and 3100 is consistent with Stark communications pointing to around 3000 bikes made in 2023. Also the few VIN examples given here by owners seems in agreement with Stark production timeline given on their Instagram production updates.

US VIN over 5600 in early April is consistent with about 3000 bikes made in 2023 then about 3000 more in January-March 2023, it does not seem that they are skipping numbers.

New VIN popping up in the past few days are 4000s along with a few 5000s, there are series of 5-6 consecutive numbers and an "almost consecutive set" of 19 VIN with only 2 missing (in the 4200s).

I'll see if I can guess a bit more following that a bit more closely now, also thanks to VINs given here. One obvious major flaw in following US VINs for Europe made bikes is the lag in time between production and when they appear in inventory (roughly estimated to 4 weeks) and lack of information on Europe (and Australia) VINs.
 

Mikec265

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Great question, I do not have any certainty about this. Indeed VINs do not HAVE TO be sequential numbers although they most often are.

Tracking US VINs (at least the part appearing on motohunt which is likely a subset, some bikes may not show, and I'm wondering about orders already accounted for before import?) all I can say is that I do not see any obvious pattern suggesting anything unusual. I mean other than Bryan "21" first customer Varg suggesting 20 prototypes were made before that.

Last week there were 116 Vargs with VINs showing up in US inventory on Motohunt,
15 in the "0s" i.e. under 1000 (exclusively 200-300s) have been there for a while, often described as demo bikes in the ads,
0 in the 1000s
21 in the 2000s,
30 in the 3000s,
46 in the 4000s and
4 in the 5000s.

Makes sense to see more of recent VINs in inventory, that's 15 dealer demos (that they're trying to fork at the same price, even if some were really brand new, good luck with that) plus 21 "late 2023" bikes and 80 bikes with 2024 model year. Switch to 2024 model year between 2800 and 3100 is consistent with Stark communications pointing to around 3000 bikes made in 2023. Also the few VIN examples given here by owners seems in agreement with Stark production timeline given on their Instagram production updates.

Also US VIN over 5600 in early April is consistent with about 3000 bikes made in 2023 then about 3000 more in January-March 2023, it does not seem that they are skipping numbers.

New VIN popping up in the past few days are 4000s along with a few 5000s, there are series of 5-6 consecutive numbers and an "almost consecutive set" of 19 VIN with only 2 missing (in the 4200s).

I'll see if I can guess a bit more following that a bit more closely now, also thanks to VINs given here. One obvious major flaw in following US VINs for Europe made bikes is the lag in time between production and when they appear in inventory (roughly estimated to 4 weeks) and lack of information on Europe (and Australia) VINs.
I wonder if a lot of the 4000s are guys like me who ordered on day one, and had to wait so long. Kinda pisses me off, but it is what it is. I had an injury in November and couldn't ride again until recently anyhow.
 

Beagle

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I wonder if a lot of the 4000s are guys like me who ordered on day one, and had to wait so long. Kinda pisses me off, but it is what it is. I had an injury in November and couldn't ride again until recently anyhow.
I think Europe preorders have been fulfilled for maybe a couple of months now, just based on bikes available on dealer's floors for some months here.

Question mark remains for US preorders, especially the ones from states with outstanding legal/delivery issues, like CA which was probably a non-negligible part of preorders.

Situation is improving though, guys from Lithium powersports in FL have almost 20 Vargs in inventory and I believe they ship nationwide. That's the biggest US dealer inventory I've found, and there's over a hundred more available across the US. Which is still at least 10 times less stock than CRF450R.
 

Beagle

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Are the flood gates open?

There are 3 brand new Vargs (VINs in the 4200s) listed at Wilson's powersports, Madera, CA.


If anyone from the area could check that out, it would be interesting to hear if deliveries can indeed begin in California.
 

Beagle

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Vargs in the 4000s listed in San Diego and Murrieta as well, looks like California deliveries are finally happening


 

Beagle

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Lithium powersports in FL just got a significant shipment of Vargs. 20 consecutive VINs in the 5100, there will be some happy riders.
 

Beagle

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Comparing April and May sets of brand new Vargs with a VIN listed at US dealers there are a few things we can tell.

Huge caveats apply, most notably I have no clue as to what proportion of Vargs actually in inventory at US dealers are accounted for on Motohunt (plus the handful of dealers I follow), that could be 10%, 50%? Also don't know if Vargs made to order would appear here. Maybe trends more than absolute numbers can still give some clues.

So using this method, here are some data points for this subset.

Stock in early April: 152
Stock in early May: 190
Vargs "imported" (i.e. appeared on listings) in April: 123
Vargs sold, from early April inventory: 57
Vargs sold, from newly imported bikes: 28
April sales: 85

Of course they have sold more bikes than that in a month, what I find interesting is that the inventory slowly grows but 85 sales compared to 123 imports sounds like a good ratio (about 70%), if it was somehow representative. Also selling 20-25% of newly imported bikes in under a month is interesting.

Tracking actual VINs in inventory, the majority of Vargs "imported" in April were in the 4000s and 5000s, that's one way to track production numbers (with 1-2 months delay due to shipping from Spain to the US). Highest VIN seen so far is 5728.

Picture1.jpg

We'll see if CA sales reopening has any noticeable effect in May sales. I think that leaves 6 states with sales/delivery issues for the moment: Indiana, Louisiana, Maryland, New Mexico, North Carolina, Ohio.

FYI Motohunt currently lists 160 Vargs, compared to 825 CRF450R, 486 YZ450F, 1602 KX450, 476 450SXF (2024 models with VIN at US dealers)
 

Beagle

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June update:

Stock in early June: 266 (up from 190)
Vargs imported in May: 156 (up from 123)
May Sales: 80 (down from 85)

Now that sales are finally opened in the 50 states and that Stark seems to have a few US warehouses with inventory these numbers tracked using Motohunt may be less interesting, more bikes will bypass dealers and never appear on this. Still, US stock and availability are improving, also inventory mainly consists of "fresh" bikes as seen with the VINs.

Highest VIN: 5906

Picture1-1.jpg
 
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