Off-Road Range Guess?

[Rix]

Great so like 3 hours then

I think that is definitely more realistic.

 

[Alta_mxr]

So are we now able to move this from a guess to an actual range estimate?

170-190# rider at a A-B pace offroad with medium elevation gains. And medium dirt conditions(no sand or other crazy deep loam)

2hours
2.5 hours
3hours

 

[dbc105]

I read an article that lead to this company, Our Next Energy this is a start up in Michigan with a new chemistry and looks to be maybe the next step up. As with all tech, it starts at one place and continues to get better and better. Consider the VCR, when they came out, the size of a suit case and cost $1200, the last ones would almost fit in your back pocket and cost $29.95. Batteries will be the same way. While it is no help right now, help is coming quick and it's going to be great. Companies like Stark will be leading the path. Sure wish we had an American dirt bike company. What few US compaines I've seen so far they have a commuter bike or what looks like a mouthain bike with a hub motor.

 

[synics]

I read an article that lead to this company, Our Next Energy this is a start up in Michigan with a new chemistry and looks to be maybe the next step up. As with all tech, it starts at one place and continues to get better and better. Consider the VCR, when they came out, the size of a suit case and cost $1200, the last ones would almost fit in your back pocket and cost $29.95. Batteries will be the same way. While it is no help right now, help is coming quick and it's going to be great. Companies like Stark will be leading the path. Sure wish we had an American dirt bike company. What few US compaines I've seen so far they have a commuter bike or what looks like a mouthain bike with a hub motor.

it's still lithium though. The capabilities there are pretty much tapped out. The next step would have to be solid state.

 

[happyinmotion]

There's heaps more improvements to come with lithum batteries. First off the block is more silicon in the anodes .That's hitting the market this year with Mercedes-Benz bringing them to scale for 2025. That will get you 20% more energy density. Then there's higher-nickel cathodes, HV spinels, microstructured anodes, solid state electrolytes, and more. And if Our Next Energy can get their anode-free lithium to work as well as they promise then that's a doubling.

Ongoing is ever-thinner separators and current collectors and dense active layers. Again, that gets you 5% here, 10% there, and it all keeps adding up. It's not just single improvements in chemistry, there's improvements underway for every part of the battery.

Batteries just keep getting better.

 

[VINSANITY]

How do you see the 4160 cell playing as an overall improvement.

 

[happyinmotion]

It's just a change of packaging so not a huge improvement, but it's one of those improvements that fits in alongside all the other improvements so the effects are cumulative.

It's big and fat and that makes manufacture cheaper as one cell replaces several smaller cells. The tabless design speeds manufacturing and makes a more direct current path for higher peak power but also a more direct path to get heat out of the fatter battery. I've seen claims of a higher energy density due to more efficient use of space. Plus there's a host of other improvements within the cell. Tesla are claiming a 56% reduction in cost. They've made bold claims before but but they keep cutting prices so clearly they're getting the cost down.

An aside, in the last few weeks I've been seeing more and more the claim that lithium batteries are "tapped out" and won't keep improving. I've seen that phrase here, on VitalMX, in the Facebook groups. It seems to be a meme that the more cynical contributors have latched on to and are presenting as an established fact.

It's bollocks. Anyone involved in battery development can see ongoing improvement and a clear pathway forward. That means new and better batteries hitting the market regularly, new product announcements showing what's almost ready for the market, industry roadmaps for what's to come after that, and R&D roadmaps for the longer-term. Lithium batteries are a $100 billion industry where the profits go to whoever has the best technology, hence there's a truly huge amount of research & development & commercialisation of new ideas. That research keeps paying off into better batteries in our vehicles.

And yes, there are fundamental limits on battery performance. So what? We're always finding ways around those limits. Lithium with NMC and graphite has limits on energy density. We're far from those limits so there's plenty of room to improve just that system. And then there's a loads of other chemistries available as we do the research to make them work. Sodium-ion just hit the market in BYD cars. Lithium-air has technical challenges but if we can get it to work then the energy density will be nuts. And I've met with a company working on aluminium-air batteries. The possible energy density for aluminium-air is just insane. We're talking as good as petrol.

We're not "tapped out", even just for lithium. We've got improvements coming this year, next year, and for the foreseable future.

 

[dbc105]

it's still lithium though. The capabilities there are pretty much tapped out. The next step would have to be solid state.

Maybe tapped out but they doubled the range of a Tesla S. I didn't say it was the end all we need, what I said was advancements are made daily and it only gets better. Read this when you have a few:

Our Next Energy tests 750-mile battery pack in a Tesla Model S - Charged EVs

A two-year-old Michigan startup, Our Next Energy (ONE), has built a custom battery pack that recently propelled a modified Tesla Model S for 752 miles. John Voelcker, writing in Car and Driver, reports that ONE retrofitted the car with a pack that stores twice the energy of Tesla’s original, and...

chargedevs.com

 

[Dirt-E]

I would say they can claim whatever they want. It's still a PR stunt until you get them into full, scaled production and end users give some feedback. They've been claiming double and triple capacity as long as I can remember, but it's all BS. Nobody can prove it beyond lab settings in very small samples.

Now, that's not to say improvements haven't been made. They are always ongoing. But the illusion of doubling the miles without some kind of smoke and mirrors is complete hokey in my opinion. They also always claim they're a year or two out. I've been messing with lithium for 17 years and that's a lot of "in a year or two" anecdotes I can rest that on.

Lastly, even if they could double the capacity, that still only gives you 50-60 miles of range on a bike like the alta or stark. Not a whole lot to get excited about, but I would take the improvement if I can get it.

 

[dbc105]

Man, forget I posted. Sorry I pointed out the article, didn't mean to make anyone mad with a little hope.

 

[Dirt-E]

It's okay that you posted. This isn't a concept that is new. It comes up just about on a monthly basis with anything battery powered so it wasn't meant to be an offense. I'm just pretty realistic with expectations. Alta proved that the tech was viable, but you have to set your sights about 1/3 lower in the real world, maybe more.

For example, the claims for 4+ hours of battery life is only possible in map 1, flat ground, constant speed of about 10-15mph, 120lb rider. My real-world range on my EXR was ~42 miles and I was crawling back to the house to avoid over-discharging the battery. They claimed something like 60-70 miles. Woods riding in map 1 with dry conditions and moderate elevations changes nets me just over 25 miles by comparison.

 

[dbc105]

Yea but there are a lot of people like me, 65 and still woods riding and 25 miles would be plenty. By the time I hit 20 miles I'm starting to think about the cold beer at the truck. I live in Alabama where everyone thinks electric cars don't work and won't have one because they can't go 3000 miles on a charge and they are even worse about motorcycles. You know the type, they find the bad side of everything, glass half empty type people. For me, I love tech and I like no pistons, no rods, no cranks, no oil, no gas, no premix, no clutch, etc.. All the stuff that tears up. I'm seeing go ride, come home, pressure wash, roll into basement and plug it up, rinse and repeat. No more stalled engine on the side of a hill, no more kick starting a cold KTM with a bad right knee. LOL, my list gets longer daily so when I see anything like the Our Next Energy Iget full of hope and sight of the future my grandsons will have. I understand your point and Elon coming out every 6 months and lying to everyone about when the next great thing is going to release doesn't help. I've been seeing Cyber Truck for 5 years but, here in Cave Man Alabama I've seen 3 Rivians in my city. LOL, but no Cyber trucks. Doesn't matter, not getting one anyway, maybe a Lightning though, that looks normal.

Hang in there, the batteries will come, as History has proven, Tech only gets better as time goes forward.

 

[happyinmotion]

Yeah.

I want enough range that I am done when I get back to the van.

 

[dbc105]

LOL, good point.