When will one of the majors bring an E-bike to the market

[Ramp_Tramp]

Hi All,

I may have an opportunity to buy an MXR this year, as noise has become an issue on my property and I want to keep riding

I have read a lot on this forum which has answered a lot of questions but one of my main worries is, now that I will be spending 3 times what I usually pay for a second hand dirt bike, it's reseal value may fall off a cliff when one of the major brands like Honda bring out their version of an E-bike.

What are peoples thoughts on this?

 

[VINSANITY]

IMO a major OEM will not build a full size electric bike like the Alta any time soon - batteries still too costly, range too short for a lot of buyers, also IMO Alta prices will keep rising

 

[C5tor]

The time is never right. If you are always waiting for the perfect thing to come along, you will never buy anything. You can wait for a sweet Honda CR-e, which is currently just vapor-ware that they may never make.

Or you can buy a sweet Alta today, and have lots of (silent) fun in the meantime. At the moment, the prices for Altas seem to be going up. Even if you broke the bike and couldn’t fix it (which I don’t think has happened yet), I bet you could part the thing out and make your money back easily.

If you have the chance to get one of these bikes, jump on the opportunity. They are a blast. I could not go back to a gas bike at this point. Altas are too much fun and I really enjoy not doing bike maintenance. Buying an Alta (even after they went out of business) was the best decision I have made to put the joy back in riding.

My only advice on buying one is that if you have the chance, buy two! Sharing the experience with others is just too much fun. Having a spare is also nice.

 

[VINSANITY]

Ah men

 

[wwmotors]

Honda had already a prototype. There was a test and a mini presentation in Japan. Never heard of it again. KTMs bosses said, there is no market at that pricelevel. Yamaha is working on a prototype out of a ICE frame. I think, the next 5 years nothing happens! As long as there is no race class with certain rules for power and KWhs in the battery, the story will not begin. No one invests money into a project without rules or reglementations like in the 250/450 classes.

 

[Judaslefourbe]

As long as there is no race class with certain rules for power and KWhs in the battery

I doubt this will happen any time soon either. KTM has been lobbying against it hard; they were trying everything they could to prevent us from racing back then...

 

[snydes]

Yeah and as soon as they released an e-Mx bike we instantly have a class just for them. Imagine that! Watch how quickly their full size gets homologated when the do release one. Wait for it!

 

[F451]

I bought my MXR a couple of years ago because for me life is too short to wait around for something that may or may not happen. I decided if I bought the Alta and one of the majors dropped an Alta killer and the value of my Alta plummeted that I would be ok with that. Just like when I've invested money in business, before I invested that money I had to accept that I might lose all of it. In some cases I have lost it all and I'm ok with that.

But so far there are no indication that anyone is even close to producing an Alta comparable bike, much less an Alta killer. I don't see that happening for at least 5 years based on what's being sold currently.

Even if someone does start selling an Alta killer, its going to be very expensive, so there will still be a market for used Altas for some time. The used Altas may not command the prices that they do now, but no dirt bikes hold their value anyway, so to me its the same as buying the latest ICE dirt bike.

I love my MXR, hardly ever ride my Husky FE 350 anymore. The Alta puts a huge smile on my face every time I ride, way more so then my ICE bikes ever did, so I'm good with whatever happens with new e-dirt bikes coming out, whatever the future value of Altas are.

 

[privateer703]

I think they are just going to wait until the mandates start in 2035. They'll use all the time between now and then to get working, but I don't think they're going to try and move any faster than that timeline. It's hard to say what the value of the Alta will be. If the majors don't make one as good as the Alta and they create race classes that would allow the Alta to compete against the majors, It's possible the value could go up. The price of new electrics will be as expensive as the Alta first was. But I wouldn't bank an anything coming out real soon.

 

[wwmotors]

The ban on ICE bikes is only a California decision, isnt it? People will buy ICE bikes in other states and ride them in California. It makes no sense, that only one state bans ICE bikes.

 

[Judaslefourbe]

My bet is KTM will time their release of full size e-bikes to match the age of the kids currently riding the e-pint size.

 

[privateer703]

But CA is a huge state that does a lot of powersports sales. Mfr's won't want to lose that, and with support of all the majors they can add electric only races and because the noise is low you can now add tracks where you couldn't before and we might actually grow the sport. Besides, as CA goes so goes the rest of the country. Other states won't be too far behind if it doesn't become a gov't mandate before then. What will be funny is in 20-30 years when there are no new ice bikes being made and those old bikes we sold to get our electric bikes are worth 10X what they used be, like classic muscle cars.

 

[F451]

My bet is KTM will time their release of full size e-bikes to match the age of the kids currently riding the e-pint size.

Exactly. KTM and the FIM are already setting the stage for this. At the Supercross races, the minis are now on KTM SX-E-5 electrics, and they added an even younger class for the ankle biters on the Stacyc electric balance bikes. The Stacyc races are hilarious, giant kid heads bobbing all over the place.

Getting the youngsters involved at the youngest ages, exposing the fans to the electrics. I predict as these kids get older, they will not want to transition to ICE bikes. I’m thinking KTM will want to sell these kids progressively larger and more capable dirt bikes as they age. Should dove tail nicely with e-dirt bikes getting greater range, lighter, and more cost competitive with ICE bikes in the coming years.

 

[F451]

The ban on ICE bikes is only a California decision, isnt it? People will buy ICE bikes in other states and ride them in California. It makes no sense, that only one state bans ICE bikes.

California is already very strict about monitoring what people are riding off-road in CA, lots of rangers and patrols, heavy fines for riding illegal bikes. I don’t see people bringing non-compliant bikes into CA. CA already has their hated red sticker/green sticker off-road bikes system which they enforce quite effectively.

And as already mentioned, the CA motorcycle market is so large (just like cars) that they pretty much set the rules for what is sold in the US. As CA does, so does the rest of the country.

 

[C5tor]

California is already very strict about monitoring what people are riding off-road in CA, lots of rangers and patrols, heavy fines for riding illegal bikes. I don’t see people bringing non-compliant bikes into CA. CA already has their hated red sticker/green sticker off-road bikes system which they enforce quite effectively.

And as already mentioned, the CA motorcycle market is so large (just like cars) that they pretty much set the rules for what is sold in the US. As CA does, so does the rest of the country.

Actually, California is phasing out the red sticker/green sticker program over the next year. Model 2021 red sticker bikes (ones that don't pass emission standards or were not submitted for testing to get a green sticker) are still being sold, but model 2022 bikes that would have been considered red sticker cannot even be sold in the state. (Used ones can still be sold privately). In 2025, there won't be any red sticker riding season, you will be able to ride existing bikes year-round (which is good), but you won't be able to purchase new model "red" sticker bikes.

Red Sticker Guidance Document for Riders.pdf (ca.gov)


Lots of states already look to Cali for emissions guidelines, so many auto manufacturers simply make all their cars to CA specs already. If they can pass those, then they can operate anywhere. I assume it may follow suit with the motorcycle and EV markets as well. I think the writing is on the wall that there will be a big push in both auto and motorcycle industry to electrify.

 

[Duramax327]

Yeah and as soon as they released an e-Mx bike we instantly have a class just for them. Imagine that! Watch how quickly their full size gets homologated when the do release one. Wait for it!

I never understood this ktm makes such a good bike if you have a solid maintenance schedule the engines last 300 hours untouched a lot of the time. Parts sales have to be much lower than a few years ago on all brands. But I guess 1000 hours out of a battery before you need a new one possibly will definitely cut bike sales down drastically ever year and parts so why bother changing over. I honestly think it’s going to be a lot longer before big bikes are electric on all major brands for those reasons.
Plus it cuts out all aftermarket parts sales to. What’s fmf gonna do after 5 years of electric bikes I mean company’s like that have to be worried.

 

[Duramax327]

I never understood this ktm makes such a good bike if you have a solid maintenance schedule the engines last 300 hours untouched a lot of the time. Parts sales have to be much lower than a few years ago on all brands. But I guess 1000 hours out of a battery before you need a new one possibly will definitely cut bike sales down drastically ever year and parts so why bother changing over. I honestly think it’s going to be a lot longer before big bikes are electric on all major brands for those reasons.
Plus it cuts out all aftermarket parts sales to. What’s fmf gonna do after 5 years of electric bikes I mean company’s like that have to be worried.

 

[Duramax327]

But I also see why they may have to switch or at least offer them. The little bikes are taking over so why would you want your kid to learn on electric and then go to a gas bike.

 

[B. FRANK]

there is a multitude of electric 2 wheelers out there, look around! most are either street bikes where weight isn't that important or are mountain bike hybrids. learning to shave weight and increase range is the single most important factor in successfully marketing an electric off road bike and it's probably just more affordable to experiment in the ultra light(bicycle) segment where there is a greater demand and a lower price point. when these people get it right they will enter the full size off road market(storm bee,kuberg,etc) and force the majors to play along or go belly up. there is no doubt that the world will go electric, cities are full of electric bikes, scooters, one wheels, skateboards as well as cars. a long time ago there were diesel, steam, electric and gasoline powered vehicles this is not new technology, gasoline won out because of convenience and performance but now their days are limited. very smart people are working on solutions they just don't want to lose their shirts by being too early, alta was unappreciated in their time and suffered because of it, but the time is close at hand...just a little more patience.

 

[Motophyllic]

If you don’t buy one, you’re missing out on some of the best fun you’ll ever have. Recently I was talking to someone about how much I’d take for my Alta and I couldn’t think of a number that I’d part with it for. Possibly $50k each, but probably not. That’s how much I like them.